Bloomberg
March 29, 2011
Portugal and Greece were downgraded by Standard & Poor’s, which said the European Union’s new bailout rules may mean that both nations eventually renege on their debt obligations.
S&P cut Portugal for the second time in a week to the lowest investment-grade rating of BBB-, three steps below Ireland. Greece’s rating fell two grades to BB-, three levels below investment grade. S&P cited concerns that both countries may be forced to restructure debt after seeking European aid and that governments will be paid back before other creditors.
The moves increase pressure on European policy makers trying to stem the sovereign-debt crisis almost a year after Greece became the first euro member to seek a bailout. Even as Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates repeatedly denies his country needs help, investors are increasing bets that it will be forced to follow Greece and Ireland into seeking aid.
“The downgrades intensify the pressures facing peripheral economies, Portugal in particular,” said Neil Mackinnon, a London-based economist at VTB Capital Plc and a former U.K. Treasury official. “It increases the likelihood of bailout.”
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Tuesday, March 29, 2011
S&P Downgrades Portugal, Greece
Wall Street Journal
March 29, 2011
Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday delivered a damning verdict of the euro zone's new plans for resolving sovereign debt crises, downgrading two of the euro zone's most troubled member states.
Citing fears that the two may have to restructure their debt and force losses on bond holders after 2013, S&P pushed its rating of Greek sovereign debt down further into junk territory, cutting it by two notches to double-B-minus from double-B-plus.
It also cut Portugal's senior debt rating by one notch to triple-B-minus from triple B. It had only last week downgraded Portugal by two notches, and the country is now on the verge of losing its investment-grade status for the first time. The outlook for both countries' ratings remains negative, S&P said.
S&P said it is "highly likely" that Greece will have to access official assistance after 2013, when the current European Financial Stabilization Facility is to be replaced permanently by the "European Stabilization Mechanism".
More
March 29, 2011
Rating agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday delivered a damning verdict of the euro zone's new plans for resolving sovereign debt crises, downgrading two of the euro zone's most troubled member states.
Citing fears that the two may have to restructure their debt and force losses on bond holders after 2013, S&P pushed its rating of Greek sovereign debt down further into junk territory, cutting it by two notches to double-B-minus from double-B-plus.
It also cut Portugal's senior debt rating by one notch to triple-B-minus from triple B. It had only last week downgraded Portugal by two notches, and the country is now on the verge of losing its investment-grade status for the first time. The outlook for both countries' ratings remains negative, S&P said.
S&P said it is "highly likely" that Greece will have to access official assistance after 2013, when the current European Financial Stabilization Facility is to be replaced permanently by the "European Stabilization Mechanism".
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S.&P. Downgrades Portugal and Greece Again
New York Times
March 29, 2011
Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that it had cut its sovereign credit ratings for Portugal and Greece, piling further pressure on the countries as they both seek to come to grips with a heavy debt load and weak economies.
S&P cut Portugal’s rating to BBB- from BBB, with a negative outlook — its second downgrade in less than a week. BBB- is the lowest investment grade rating at the agency, or just one notch above junk.
The Portuguese government collapsed last week after it was unable to push through Parliament further measures to plug its deficit and fend off the need for outside aid. The country now faces weeks of political uncertainty before general elections.
S&P said the country would probably need an international bailout. Lisbon has about €9 billion, or $13 billion, of bond redemptions coming due in April and June. Analysts suggest that Portugal’s current cash position is sufficient enough to cover the April redemption, but not the one in June.
The Greek rating, already junk, was cut by S&P to BB- from BB+ amid concerns the country may be required to restructure its debt.
More
March 29, 2011
Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday that it had cut its sovereign credit ratings for Portugal and Greece, piling further pressure on the countries as they both seek to come to grips with a heavy debt load and weak economies.
S&P cut Portugal’s rating to BBB- from BBB, with a negative outlook — its second downgrade in less than a week. BBB- is the lowest investment grade rating at the agency, or just one notch above junk.
The Portuguese government collapsed last week after it was unable to push through Parliament further measures to plug its deficit and fend off the need for outside aid. The country now faces weeks of political uncertainty before general elections.
S&P said the country would probably need an international bailout. Lisbon has about €9 billion, or $13 billion, of bond redemptions coming due in April and June. Analysts suggest that Portugal’s current cash position is sufficient enough to cover the April redemption, but not the one in June.
The Greek rating, already junk, was cut by S&P to BB- from BB+ amid concerns the country may be required to restructure its debt.
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S&P's: Υποβάθμιση της πιστοληπτικής ικανότητας της Ελλάδας
Καθημερινή
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Ο οίκος σημείωσε ότι τα αποτελέσματα της Συνόδου Κορυφής της ΕΕ στις 25 Μαρτίου επιβεβαίωσαν τις εκτιμήσεις του για αίτηση ελληνικής βοήθειας και πέρα από το 2013.
Ο οίκος πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης Standard & Poor's ανακοίνωσε ότι υποβάθμισε το αξιόχρεο της Ελλάδας κατά δύο βαθμίδες, στο ΒΒ- από ΒΒ+, ενώ διατήρησε αρνητική την προοπτική του.
Στην ανακοίνωσή του, ο οίκος σημείωσε ότι τα αποτελέσματα της Συνόδου Κορυφής της ΕΕ στις 25 Μαρτίου επιβεβαίωσαν τις εκτιμήσεις του ότι η αναδιάρθρωση του δημόσιου χρέους είναι δυνητικά προϋπόθεση για το δανεισμό μίας χώρας από το μόνιμο Ευρωπαϊκό Μηχανισμό Σταθεροποίησης (ESM), ο οποίος θα διαδεχθεί από τον Ιούλιο 2013 το σημερινό Ευρωπαϊκό Ταμείο Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας.
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Δες επίσης ρεπορτάζ στο Βήμα και στα Νέα.
Η αντίδραση της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης: Ρεπορτάζ στο Βήμα, στην Καθημερινή και στα Νέα
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Ο οίκος σημείωσε ότι τα αποτελέσματα της Συνόδου Κορυφής της ΕΕ στις 25 Μαρτίου επιβεβαίωσαν τις εκτιμήσεις του για αίτηση ελληνικής βοήθειας και πέρα από το 2013.
Ο οίκος πιστοληπτικής αξιολόγησης Standard & Poor's ανακοίνωσε ότι υποβάθμισε το αξιόχρεο της Ελλάδας κατά δύο βαθμίδες, στο ΒΒ- από ΒΒ+, ενώ διατήρησε αρνητική την προοπτική του.
Στην ανακοίνωσή του, ο οίκος σημείωσε ότι τα αποτελέσματα της Συνόδου Κορυφής της ΕΕ στις 25 Μαρτίου επιβεβαίωσαν τις εκτιμήσεις του ότι η αναδιάρθρωση του δημόσιου χρέους είναι δυνητικά προϋπόθεση για το δανεισμό μίας χώρας από το μόνιμο Ευρωπαϊκό Μηχανισμό Σταθεροποίησης (ESM), ο οποίος θα διαδεχθεί από τον Ιούλιο 2013 το σημερινό Ευρωπαϊκό Ταμείο Χρηματοπιστωτικής Σταθερότητας.
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Δες επίσης ρεπορτάζ στο Βήμα και στα Νέα.
Η αντίδραση της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης: Ρεπορτάζ στο Βήμα, στην Καθημερινή και στα Νέα
S&P Downgrades Greece Rating, Says May Cut Again
Reuters/New York Times
March 29, 2011
Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's debt deeper into junk status on Tuesday, saying that a bailout scheme agreed by euro zone leaders last week increased the likelihood of debt restructuring.
The firm cut Greece's rating by two notches to BB-, lower than its rating of BB for Turkey and Egypt, and warned it could downgrade the debt-choked country by another one or two notches in case of budget slippages.
"We believe ... it (the European Stability Mechanism) undermines Greece's plans to resume commercial borrowing by mid-2013, when the current EU/IMF program of official financial support terminates, and increases the likelihood of debt restructuring," S&P said.
The first euro zone country to ask for a bailout, Greece is rated junk by all three major rating agencies. It has suffered series of downgrades since it revealed a huge budget deficit in 2009, triggering a debt a crisis that shook the euro zone.
Earlier this month, Moody's cut Greece's rating to B1, one notch below S&P's new rating. Fitch rates Greece BB+, two notches higher than S&P.
The firm said there were growing risks to Greece's budgetary position, with revenues underperforming and prospects of better tax collection remaining uncertain. It said more measures were needed to meet 2011 deficit targets.
"We believe that additional measures to meet the targets could create further political and social pressures which, in turn, could undermine the government's resolve to fully comply with the European Union/International Monetary Fund program," S&P said in the statement.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said the downgrade did not reflect Greece's efforts and that Athens aimed to return to bond markets as soon as possible.
More
March 29, 2011
Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's debt deeper into junk status on Tuesday, saying that a bailout scheme agreed by euro zone leaders last week increased the likelihood of debt restructuring.
The firm cut Greece's rating by two notches to BB-, lower than its rating of BB for Turkey and Egypt, and warned it could downgrade the debt-choked country by another one or two notches in case of budget slippages.
"We believe ... it (the European Stability Mechanism) undermines Greece's plans to resume commercial borrowing by mid-2013, when the current EU/IMF program of official financial support terminates, and increases the likelihood of debt restructuring," S&P said.
The first euro zone country to ask for a bailout, Greece is rated junk by all three major rating agencies. It has suffered series of downgrades since it revealed a huge budget deficit in 2009, triggering a debt a crisis that shook the euro zone.
Earlier this month, Moody's cut Greece's rating to B1, one notch below S&P's new rating. Fitch rates Greece BB+, two notches higher than S&P.
The firm said there were growing risks to Greece's budgetary position, with revenues underperforming and prospects of better tax collection remaining uncertain. It said more measures were needed to meet 2011 deficit targets.
"We believe that additional measures to meet the targets could create further political and social pressures which, in turn, could undermine the government's resolve to fully comply with the European Union/International Monetary Fund program," S&P said in the statement.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said the downgrade did not reflect Greece's efforts and that Athens aimed to return to bond markets as soon as possible.
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Η κρίση φουντώνει τα φαινόμενα κακοδιοίκησης
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Η οικονομική κρίση που οδήγησε σε περιστολή των δαπανών επηρέασε ευρύτερα τη λειτουργία του κράτους. Καθυστερήσεις πληρωμών, προβλήματα λειτουργίας υπηρεσιών λόγω ελλιπούς στελέχωσης σε συνδυασμό με το κύμα συνταξιοδοτήσεων, μειωμένες υπηρεσίες πρόνοιας, καθυστερήσεις στην απονομή συντάξεων και στην παροχή άλλων κοινωνικών δικαιωμάτων, ανατροπή προσδοκιών για πρόσληψη επιτυχόντων σε διαγωνισμούς, είναι ορισμένα από τα θέματα που κυριάρχησαν το 2010 στις καταγγελίες (αναφορές) των πολιτών προς το Συνήγορο του Πολίτη.
Η οικονομική κρίση αποτελεί πρόκληση για τους πολιτικούς και διοικητικούς θεσμούς, καθώς απαιτείται να ενταθεί η θεσμική λειτουργία, η τήρηση των αρχών και των κανόνων του κράτους δικαίου και της δημοκρατίας, επισήμανε η αναπληρώτρια Συνήγορος του Πολίτη κυρία Καλλιόπη Σπανού κατά τη διάρκεια της συνέντευξης Τύπου στην οποία παρουσίασε την ετήσια έκθεση της Αρχής. Προηγουμένως την είχε παραδώσει στον Πρόεδρο της Βουλής κ. Φίλιππο Πετσάλνικο.
Από την έκθεση του 2010 προκύπτει ότι ο αριθμός των καταγγελιών των πολιτών (13.179) παρέμεινε πρακτικά στα ίδια υψηλά επίπεδα του 2009 και διατηρεί μια αύξηση της τάξης του 20% σε σχέση με την προ του 2008 περίοδο. «Σε μια χώρα όπου η εμπιστοσύνη στους θεσμούς υπήρξε ανέκαθεν ελλειμματική» επισήμανε η κυρία Σπανού, «η οικοδόμηση σχέσεων εμπιστοσύνης μεταξύ κράτους και πολιτών καθίσταται πιο απαραίτητη από ποτέ. Γι' αυτό είναι κρίσιμο να αναδειχθεί η υπέρ του κοινού συμφέροντος λειτουργία των θεσμών και ο σεβασμός των δικαιωμάτων των πολιτών».
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Euro economists expect Greek default, BBC survey finds
March 28, 2011
Greece is likely to default on its sovereign debt, according to the majority of respondents to a BBC World Service survey of European economists.
Two-thirds of the 52 respondents forecast a default, but most said the euro would survive in its current form.
The euro crisis began when it became clear that Greece would struggle to pay its debts and had to be given rescue loans by the EU and the IMF last year.
However, Greece's finance minister rejected the suggestions of a default.
Since the Greek rescue, the Irish Republic has also had to seek help. And Portugal seems increasingly close to meeting the same fate.
The forecasters the BBC surveyed are experts on the euro area - they are surveyed every three months by the European Central Bank (ECB) - and as well placed as anyone to peer into a rather murky crystal ball and say how they think the crisis might play out.
The survey had a total of 38 replies and two messages came across very strongly.
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Watch the Euro’s Defences Crumble
Wall Street Journal
March 28, 2011
The euro’s defences are under attack again, and they could well crumble this time.
For the last few weeks, the single currency has been supported for two key reasons—market confidence in the political will to keep the euro-project alive and the staunchly hawkish stance of the European Central Bank.
However, the political will is becoming more difficult to preserve and the hawkish stance may not be so helpful after all.
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Greece: This Decade's Argentina?
by Angry Bear
Business Insider
March 28, 2011
There's been a bit of discussion floating around about whether the US's deficit and debt situation makes it appropriate to draw comparisons with Greece. Of course, such a comparison is ridiculous for a number of reasons, not least because the US has its own currency. But Greece has been on my mind lately for unrelated reasons, including the following news:
Not only do I agree that default by Greece on its sovereign debt is quite possible... but I think it increasingly likely that policy-makers in Greece may decide that it is the least bad option at this point, particularly in the face of an increasingly hard-line attitude from Germany regarding bailouts (which will only be reinforced by recent election results).
The problem is easy to lay out: Greece has more debt than it can realistically make payments on, and being a euro country also has a currency over which it has no control. If it had its own currency, it would be in a classic debt crisis similar to several Latin American countries in the 1980s, or possibly Mexico in 1994.
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Business Insider
March 28, 2011
There's been a bit of discussion floating around about whether the US's deficit and debt situation makes it appropriate to draw comparisons with Greece. Of course, such a comparison is ridiculous for a number of reasons, not least because the US has its own currency. But Greece has been on my mind lately for unrelated reasons, including the following news:
Euro economists expect Greek default, BBC survey finds
Greece is likely to default on its sovereign debt, according to the majority of respondents to a BBC World Service survey of European economists. Two-thirds of the 52 respondents forecast a default, but most said the euro would survive in its current form.
...The forecasters the BBC surveyed are experts on the euro area - they are surveyed every three months by the European Central Bank (ECB) - and as well placed as anyone to peer into a rather murky crystal ball and say how they think the crisis might play out. The survey had a total of 38 replies and two messages came across very strongly.
Not only do I agree that default by Greece on its sovereign debt is quite possible... but I think it increasingly likely that policy-makers in Greece may decide that it is the least bad option at this point, particularly in the face of an increasingly hard-line attitude from Germany regarding bailouts (which will only be reinforced by recent election results).
The problem is easy to lay out: Greece has more debt than it can realistically make payments on, and being a euro country also has a currency over which it has no control. If it had its own currency, it would be in a classic debt crisis similar to several Latin American countries in the 1980s, or possibly Mexico in 1994.
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Η αναδιάρθρωση του χρέους είναι απαραίτητη
Καθημερινή
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Πρέπει να αντικρίσουμε την αλήθεια: Η Ελλάδα δεν θα μπορέσει ποτέ να ξεπληρώσει τα χρέη της. Το βουνό του χρέους έχει φτάσει στα 340 δισεκατομμύρια ευρώ. Αυτό αντιστοιχεί σε 148 τοις εκατό του Ακαθάριστου Εθνικού Προϊόντος. Το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο εκτιμά ότι το ποσοστό αυτό θα αυξηθεί ακόμα περισσότερο μέχρι το 2013. Θα υπάρχει δηλαδή μια περαιτέρω άνοδος έως και 160 τοις εκατό του ΑΕΠ. Είναι γεγονός ότι η Ελλάδα οδηγείται σε μια βαθιά οικονομική ύφεση.
Οσο βέβαιο και αν θεωρείτο ότι η Γερμανίδα καγκελάριος Αγκελα Μέρκελ δεν θα έμπαινε στη διαδικασία να συζητήσει οποιαδήποτε αναδιαπραγμάτευση των τόκων πριν από τη διεξαγωγή των κρίσιμων περιφερειακών εκλογών στη νοτιοδυτική Γερμανία, η Ελλάδα απέδειξε ότι μπορεί να θριαμβεύει σε μικρές μάχες.
Ομως, η επιμήκυνση της αποπληρωμής του χρέους καθώς επίσης και η μείωση των τόκων κατά μία ποσοστιαία μονάδα αποτελούν μονάχα μια σταγόνα πάνω στην καυτή πέτρα. Η ευρωπαϊκή κρίση είναι μια κρίση των τραπεζών. Γι’ αυτόν τον λόγο η αναδιάρθρωση του χρέους είναι κυριολεκτικά απαραίτητη. Οι πιστωτές πρέπει να αποποιηθούν μέχρι και 30 τοις εκατό των διεκδικήσεών τους. Οι τράπεζες το έχουν καταλάβει αυτό.
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Greece Seeks Creative Ways to Plug Budget Gap
Wall Street Journal
March 28, 2011
Greece's Socialist government is considering creative means to close its budget gap as tax receipts slump—including steps ranging from seizing the unclaimed assets of the dead to slapping new taxes on carbonated drinks.
Ahead of a visit by international creditors Monday, the government is scrambling to find €22 billion ($31 billion) in additional spending cuts and tax measures over the next three years, as required under a €110 billion bailout it received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May.
"Tax collection is not coming in as expected, so the government, beyond pushing on that front, will look for other ways to close the gap," said a senior government official. "Seeking funds from unclaimed inheritances and from [bank] accounts from people long deceased, are some things that are being considered," he said. "A tax on soft drinks is also being seriously considered."
Seizing unclaimed assets of the dead—some such estates have been in legal limbo for decades—could net the state around €4 billion in revenue, the official said.
More
March 28, 2011
Greece's Socialist government is considering creative means to close its budget gap as tax receipts slump—including steps ranging from seizing the unclaimed assets of the dead to slapping new taxes on carbonated drinks.
Ahead of a visit by international creditors Monday, the government is scrambling to find €22 billion ($31 billion) in additional spending cuts and tax measures over the next three years, as required under a €110 billion bailout it received from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in May.
"Tax collection is not coming in as expected, so the government, beyond pushing on that front, will look for other ways to close the gap," said a senior government official. "Seeking funds from unclaimed inheritances and from [bank] accounts from people long deceased, are some things that are being considered," he said. "A tax on soft drinks is also being seriously considered."
Seizing unclaimed assets of the dead—some such estates have been in legal limbo for decades—could net the state around €4 billion in revenue, the official said.
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Το κόµµα του φόβου
Τα Νέα
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Στις τοπικές εκλογές της περασµένης Κυριακής σε Γαλλία και Γερµανία έχασαν αντιστοίχως ο Νικολά Σαρκοζί και η Ανγκελα Μέρκελ. Ωραία αλλά ποιος κέρδισε;
Ε, λοιπόν, και στις δυο περιπτώσεις ο πραγµατικός νικητής δεν είναι ένα άλλο κόµµα εξουσίας που βρίσκεται στην αντιπολίτευση όπως οι Σοσιαλιστές ή οι Σοσιαλδηµοκράτες. Αλλά δυο κόµµατα που θεωρούνται εκτός παραδοσιακού πολιτικού συστήµατος: το Εθνικό Μέτωπο της Μαρίν Λεπέν στη Γαλλία και οι Πράσινοι στη Γερµανία. Μια λαϊκιστική Ακροδεξιά και µια διαφορετική Αριστερά.
Περιέργως, όµως, και οι δυο οφείλουντην επιτυχία τους στον ίδιο ακριβώς λόγο: τον φόβο. Τον φόβο απέναντι στον ξένο και τον µετανάστη στην Γαλλία. Τον φόβο απέναντι στην πυρηνική απειλή στη Γερµανία. Τον κοινό κι ίσως ανοµολόγητο φόβο απέναντι σε µια κοινωνία που γίνεται πιο ασυνήθιστη, πιο άγνωστη, λιγότερο οικεία και ασφαλής.
Αυτό το «κόμμα του φόβου» δεν είναι ούτε γαλλική ούτε γερµανική αποκλειστικότητα. Το συναντώ κάθε µέρα στην Ελλάδα.
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Η «μάχη» της ρευστότητας
Καθημερινή
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Πώς θα επιστρέψει η ρευστότητα στην οικονομία; Η καθιερωμένη απάντηση είναι πως οι τράπεζες πρέπει να δώσουν περισσότερα δάνεια. Ακούγεται απλό, αυτονοήτως ορθό και όμως, είναι λάθος! Σκεφτείτε, κατά πρώτο λόγο, ότι όσοι το ισχυρίζονται παραβιάζουν ανοιχτές πόρτες. Οι τράπεζες δεν έχουν καμία αντίρρηση να δώσουν κι άλλα δάνεια. Δηλαδή, τι άλλο τα κάνουν τα διαθέσιμά τους; Συντηρούν τα δάνεια που έχουν δώσει, δίνουν καινούργια και ενισχύουν τα αποθεματικά κεφάλαια ασφαλείας προκειμένου να νιώθουν (και να είναι!) ασφαλείς οι καταθέτες.
Το μείζον για το πιστωτικό σύστημα είναι η αξιοπιστία του. Πριν μια τράπεζα «βγάλει» οποιοδήποτε δάνειο, πρέπει να είναι απολύτως σίγουρη ότι οι καταθέσεις που της έχουν εμπιστευθεί παραμένουν ασφαλείς.
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"Σκαφάτοι" φοροφυγάδες
Protagon.gr
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Θέλουμε να βάλουμε τους ανθρώπους φυλακή ή μήπως θέλουμε τα χρήματα που χρωστάνε στο δημόσιο; Θέλουμε δικαιοσύνη έτσι όπως τη φαντάζεται ο καθένας ή αποτελεσματικότητα; Θέλουμε έσοδα για να σωθεί η χώρα ή απλά να τιμωρηθούν όσοι μας έφτασαν ως εδώ; Μα θα μου πείτε είναι αντίφαση; Καμιά φορά είναι.
Πάρτε για παράδειγμα τις θαλαμηγούς. Το ΣΔΟΕ έχει καταγράψει πάνω από 4000 σκάφη που οι ιδιοκτήτες τους τα συντηρούν δηλώνοντας εισοδήματα χαμηλότερα από εκείνα που απαιτούνται για την συντήρησή τους. Παραδείγματα:
- Συνιδιοκτήτης 3 εμπορικών αλυσίδων –μεταξύ των οποίων ενός από τα μεγαλύτερα σούπερ μάρκετ της χώρας δηλώνει εισόδημα 70.000 ευρώ με σκάφος 40 μέτρων που φαίνεται ότι ανήκει σε υπεράκτια εταιρεία που φυσικά δεν έχει σχέση μαζί του και του το νοικιάζει.
- Επιχειρηματίας από τους μεγαλύτερους της χώρας πλήρωσε πάνω από 420 εκ. δραχμές ΦΠΑ για την απόκτηση άλλου σκάφους, που το πέρασε σε εταιρεία «μπροστινού», ο οποίος δηλώνει εισόδημα 28.000 ευρώ το χρόνο. Επειδή ουδέποτε το κράτος συνέδεσε την εταιρεία με ένα σκάφος 38 μέτρων, επέστρεψε στον «μπροστινό» για την χρήση του 2008, 1000 ευρώ.
- Αρκετοί ιδιοκτήτες εταιρειών, κτίρια των οποίων νοικιάζει η κυβέρνηση, δεν πληρώνουν για τα σκάφη τους.
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Η ΔΕΗ τιμή δεν έχει;
Καθημερινή
29 Μαρτίου 2011
Για να συμφωνήσουμε με την κ. Τίνα Μπιρμπίλη, ότι «η αξία της ΔΕΗ, όπως αποτιμάται χρηματιστηριακά, είναι χαμηλή» (συνέντευξη «Τα Νέα 28.3.2011), πρέπει να μας δώσει το μέτρο σύγκρισης. Είναι χαμηλή σε σχέση με άλλες ομοειδείς επιχειρήσεις του ευρωπαϊκού Νότου που έχουν παραπλήσια χαρακτηριστικά με τη ΔΕΗ; Είναι χαμηλή σε σχέση με την εποχή της φούσκας του χρηματιστηρίου, τότε που και οι «Γενικές Αποθήκες Α. Ε.» πουλιόνταν χρυσάφι; Ή είναι χαμηλή διότι έτσι μας κάπνισε και «με τον παρά μας και τη μαγκιά μας» μπορούμε να περιμένουμε μέχρι η τιμή να γίνει υψηλή; Και πού αποτιμά η κυβέρνηση το υψηλόν της τιμής της μετοχής της ΔΕΗ; Στα είκοσι ευρώ; Στα τριάντα; Στα χίλια; Εκτός αν η τιμή της μετοχής της ΔΕΗ τιμή δεν έχει...
Κυκλοφορεί ευρέως στους κυβερνητικούς κύκλους η άποψη ότι τώρα δεν είναι η ώρα για αποκρατικοποιήσεις. Οι τιμές των εισηγμένων, λένε, είναι χαμηλά και δεν συμφέρει. Το πρόβλημα, όμως, είναι ότι στους ίδιους κύκλους ποτέ δεν ήταν η ώρα για αποκρατικοποιήσεις. Ακόμη και όταν η μετοχή της ΔΕΗ ήταν σε τριπλάσια από τη σημερινή τιμή. Και αυτό δεν αφορά μόνο τη ΔΕΗ. Οσοι θυμούνται την «εποποιία της Ολυμπιακής» και ανατρέξουν στις σχετικές ανακοινώσεις θα δουν ότι και για τον «εθνικό μας αερομεταφορέα» ποτέ δεν είχε φτάσει η ώρα για να αποκρατικοποιηθεί. Τη μια τη χρειάζονταν τα νησιά μας, την άλλη συνέβαλε στην ανάπτυξη της χώρας (με τα γνωστά αποτελέσματα), την άλλη ήταν αναγκαία στην περίπτωση που γινόταν... πόλεμος με τους Τούρκους. Η «Ολυμπιακή» έβαζε τον προϋπολογισμό 500 εκατομμύρια μέσα και μέχρι να συζητήσουμε «πότε θα ’ρθει εκείνη η ώρα η στερνή», φόρτωσε δημόσιο χρέος με πάνω από 10 δισ. Αυτά είναι κάποια από τα δισεκατομμύρια που καλούμαστε να πληρώσουμε σήμερα.
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Συνέντευξη του Αλέκου Παπαδόπουλου
ΣΚΑΙ
Νέοι Φάκελοι
28 Μαρτίου 2011
Την Δευτέρα 28 Μαρτίου στις 23.00 στον ΣΚΑΪ, λιγο μετά την Σύνοδο Κορυφής ο πρώην υπουργός Οικονομικών Αλέκος Παπαδόπουλος μιλά στον Αλέξη Παπαχελά για την επόμενη μέρα της Ελληνικής Οικονομίας.
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Νέοι Φάκελοι
28 Μαρτίου 2011
Την Δευτέρα 28 Μαρτίου στις 23.00 στον ΣΚΑΪ, λιγο μετά την Σύνοδο Κορυφής ο πρώην υπουργός Οικονομικών Αλέκος Παπαδόπουλος μιλά στον Αλέξη Παπαχελά για την επόμενη μέρα της Ελληνικής Οικονομίας.
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How Europe’s New Unstable Equilibrium Will Help Solve Its Sovereign Debt Crisis
Peterson Institute for International Economics
March 28, 2011
The euro area sovereign debt crisis is gradually turning into the best thing that has happened to European Union politics and European economies since the launch of the Single Market in the mid-1980s. The crisis has shattered the fake ten-year political and economic equilibrium between core and periphery countries that followed the initial shock of euro introduction. That sham equilibrium was based on the feel-good factor of illusory growth from real estate booms and credit financed consumption sprees. It was enabled both by incompetent financial market credit risk assessments that allowed Greece to borrow at German interest rates for a decade and also allowed European governments to believe the comforting, but erroneous signals from financial markets. After all, if Greece could borrow at German rates, who in Brussels could question it? It must have meant that the dream of European integration and economic convergence was really happening, that "Brussels" was competently steering Europe toward "ever closer union" and that all Europeans would enjoy Luxembourg’s standard of living.
Instead the tide that was supposed to lift all European boats has gone out. Euro membership has become a kind of prison shelter, protecting country inmates from the mean streets of global financial crises, but allowing unpleasant things to happen to the weak, unless they reform before entering or prepare to do politically heavy lifting on reform once inside.
The European political and institutional response to the latest crisis, had to navigate 27 national domestic political constituencies. Inevitably it limped behind. Yet the fact that it took only about 12 months from May of 2010 to negotiate the new permanent euro area crisis facility to be known as the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) is testimony to the innovative capacity of the European Union. The ESM is a permanent new EU institution built to last, and it was wise for leaders not to rush into it. The result has been a new political and economic equilibrium between the core and periphery of Europe. However unstable it is in the short run, this new equilibrium could ultimately help resolve the European sovereign debt and banking crisis.
Most financial market analysts and non-Europeans who have overlooked these accomplishments have committed two important fallacies.
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See also
The Moral Hazard of the Euro
Mises Daily
March 28, 2011
[Foreword to The Tragedy of the Euro, by Philipp Bagus (2010)]
It is a great pleasure for me to present this book by my colleague Philipp Bagus, one of my most brilliant and promising students. The book is extremely timely and shows how the interventionist setup of the European monetary system has led to disaster.
The current sovereign-debt crisis is the direct result of credit expansion by the European banking system. In the early 2000s, credit was expanded especially in the periphery of the European Monetary Union such as in Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Interest rates were reduced substantially by credit expansion coupled with a fall both in inflationary expectations and risk premiums. The sharp fall in inflationary expectations was caused by the prestige of the newly created European Central Bank as a copy of the Bundesbank. Risk premiums were reduced artificially due to the expected support by stronger nations. The result was an artificial boom. Asset-price bubbles such as a housing bubble in Spain developed. The newly created money was primarily injected in the countries of the periphery where it financed overconsumption and malinvestments, mainly in overextended automobile and construction sectors. At the same time, the credit expansion also helped to finance and expand unsustainable welfare states.
In 2007, the microeconomic effects that reverse any artificial boom financed by credit expansion and not by genuine real savings started to show up. Prices of means of production such as commodities and wages rose. Interest rates also climbed due to inflationary pressure that made central banks reduce their expansionary stands. Finally, consumer-goods prices started to rise relative to the prices offered to the originary factors of production. It became more and more obvious that many investments were not sustainable due to a lack of real savings. Many of these investments occurred in the construction sector. The financial sector came under pressure as mortgages had been securitized, ending up directly or indirectly on balance sheets of financial institutions. The pressures culminated in the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, which led to a full-fledged panic in financial markets.
Instead of letting market forces run their course, governments unfortunately intervened with the necessary adjustment process. It is this unfortunate intervention that not only prevented a faster and more thorough recovery but also produced, as a side effect, the sovereign-debt crisis of spring 2010. Governments tried to prop up the overextended sectors, increasing their spending. They paid subsidies for new car purchases to support the automobile industry and started public works to support the construction sector as well as the sector that had lent to these industries, the banking sector.
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Monday, March 28, 2011
Greece hopes diaspora bonds will raise $3bn
Guardian
March 28, 2011
Newly invigorated by the European Union's decision to ease the terms of its gargantuan bailout, debt-stricken Greece has begun wooing its wealthy community overseas in the hope that it will rally around the homeland.
Athens hopes that a winning mix of nostalgia for the old country and the whiff of a good deal will entice ethnic Greeks abroad to buy diaspora bonds. The socialist government recently filed a shelf-registration with US regulators to proceed with the issue, in what officials called a prelude to the country re-entering capital markets.
"When the Israelis went through a similar crisis they found a new weapon through diaspora bonds," the deputy foreign minister, Dimitris Dollis, told the Guardian. "After talks with the Jewish lobby in the US, and leadership in Israel, we decided to issue them too."
Originally announced in New York by Greece's US-born prime minister George Papandreou, himself a product of the diaspora, the programme foresees Athens raising up to $3bn (£1.9bn) from the bonds in a series of quarterly sales. Officials say they are aiming for a yield of below 5% with likely maturities of between three and 10 years.
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