Hangover cure and clutching at straws drive Greece’s export sales

by Kerin Hope

Financial Times
December 19, 2016

The challenges faced by Greece’s many small companies have mounted as the financial crisis has gone on. The country’s manufacturers in particular have been hit hard by falling domestic sales and a desperate lack of bank credit to finance export drives.

“Small producers are among the worst hit by capital controls and the squeeze on bank liquidity, especially companies that have to import raw materials,” says Kostis Michalos, chairman of the Athens chamber of commerce and industry.

Yet small companies in sectors such as food and beverages and specialised plastic products are improving their international competitiveness by targeting niche markets.

The makers of Tuvunu, a low-calorie soft drink, uses Greek mountain tea, a local herb, as the raw material for making a rival to international iced-tea brands, doing away with the need for imported raw materials.

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Tsipras will put pensioner bonus to Greek parliament

BBC News
December 14, 2016

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has refused to back down over his plans to give poor Greek pensioners a pre-Christmas bonus.

A government official said Mr Tsipras would ask parliament on Thursday to approve the payment, worth €617m (£517m) in total.

Earlier, eurozone lenders suspended their recently agreed short-term debt-relief plan for Greece.

They said they had not been asked to approve the bonuses plan.

The European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the body that helps eurozone governments in trouble, said it would now be scrutinising the proposed handout.

"Following recent proposals by the Greek government to spend additional fiscal resources for pensions and VAT, our governing bodies have put their decisions temporarily on hold," a spokesman for the ESM said.

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IMF denies it is trying to force more austerity in Greece

by Jim Brunsden

Financial Times
December 12, 2016

Senior International Monetary Fund officials have rejected claims that the organisation is seeking to impose more austerity on Greece, in a sign of tension over whether the fund will join the eurozone’s €86bn bailout of the country.

In a blog post published on Monday afternoon, Poul Thomsen, director of the IMF’s European department, and Maurice Obstfeld, the fund’s chief economist, say that their main worries are that Greece is pursuing policies that are “unfriendly to growth” and that country’s debt is “highly unsustainable”.

The post lays bare the gulf between eurozone and IMF visions of what the Greek bailout programme should look like. It also shows the level of frustration at the fund over what is sees as misrepresentation of its stance by leading eurozone policymakers.

Recent discussions have “spurred some misinformation about the role and views of the IMF”, the officials said. “We have not changed our view that Greece does not need more austerity at this time.”

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The IMF is Not Asking Greece for More Austerity

by Maurice Obstfeld & Poul M. Thomsen

iMFdirect
December 12, 2016

Greece is once again in the headlines as discussions for the second review of its European Stability Mechanism (ESM) program are gaining pace. Unfortunately, the discussions have also spurred some misinformation about the role and the views of the IMF. Above all, the IMF is being criticized for demanding more fiscal austerity, in particular for making this a condition for urgently needed debt relief. This is not true, and clarifications are in order.

The IMF is not demanding more austerity. On the contrary, when the Greek Government agreed with its European partners in the context of the ESM program to push the Greek economy to a primary fiscal surplus of 3.5 percent by 2018, we warned that this would generate a degree of austerity that could prevent the nascent recovery from taking hold. We projected that the measures in the ESM program will deliver a surplus of only 1.5 percent of GDP, and said this would be enough for us to support a program. We did not call for additional measures to achieve a higher surplus. But contrary to our advice, the Greek Government agreed with the European institutions to temporarily compress spending further if needed to ensure that the surplus would reach 3.5 percent of GDP.

We have not changed our view that Greece does not need more austerity at this time. Claiming that it is the IMF who is calling for this turns the truth upside down.

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Greece Heads Toward New Crisis in Debt Saga as Support for Tsipras Slumps

by Nektaria Stamouli & Marcus Walker

Wall Street Journal
December 12, 2016

Greece’s crisis is approaching a potential breaking point after a year of relative calm, as a government with declining political stamina confronts creditors’ unyielding demands.

The ruling left-wing Syriza party, grappling with slumping popularity, is considering the option of calling snap elections in 2017, as it loses hope of winning concessions on debt relief or austerity from the eurozone and International Monetary Fund.

No decision for elections has been made, said Greek officials, who added that they would review the state of negotiations in January, after pressing creditors again to show more flexibility.

Elections would allow Syriza—if not Greece—to escape from the pressures of an unpopular bailout program whose strained math has eventually brought down every Greek government since the crisis began in 2009. Syriza’s leader and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, like his predecessors, is struggling to meet strict fiscal targets in a recession-scarred country weary of austerity.

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Greek Court Rejects Turkish Request for Extradition of Two Army Officers

by Nektaria Stamouli

Wall Street Journal
December 8, 2016

A Greek court rejected Turkey’s request to extradite the last two of eight military officers who fled to Greece in the wake of the failed coup attempt in their country, officials said.

This week, two sets of judges on the same court decided to extradite three of the soldiers while rejecting Turkey’s request for the extradition of the three others.

All decisions will be appealed to the country’s Supreme Court.

Turkey’s government has requested the rapid extradition of the men, whom it has described as traitors, to face charges of trying to overthrow the democratic constitution. Turkish prosecutors allege they belong to the network of U.S.-based Turkish imam Fethullah Gulen, who has been charged in absentia by Turkish prosecutors for leading a group Turkey lists as a terrorist organization. Mr. Gulen denies the claim.

The men have denied the charges and told the Greek court they fear for their lives if they are returned to Turkey. Greek and European laws don’t allow extradition to a country where the suspect will be in danger of torture or if his or her life is at risk.

The judges sitting on the Appeals Court on Monday and Thursday ruled that the officers’ lives will be in danger; they might be subject to torture and won’t get a fair trial, Greek officials said.

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Tsipras in Search of EU Allies as Workers at Home Strike

by Eleni Chrepa

Bloomberg
December 8, 2016

Greece is running out of friends in the European Union.

As Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces workers protesting creditor demands for labor reform and new austerity measures, his key allies in southern Europe are fading from the political scene -- Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned after a crushing referendum defeat and French President Francois Hollande has said he won’t seek a second term.

Renzi and Hollande have backed Tsipras’s calls against austerity as well as demands for more support on the refugee front, with the three of them joining forces to hold the first summit of Europe’s Mediterranean countries in Athens in September. With extreme right-wing parties and populists rising across Europe, Greece may need the pro-European German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s backing more than ever.

“Greece will keep having fewer allies,” said Aristides Hatzis, a professor of law and economics at the University of Athens. “Merkel is our only ally at the moment but even Merkel has her own limits as German elections are nearing.”

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Greece, Not Italy, Still Poses Biggest Challenge to Eurozone

by Simon Nixon

Wall Street Journal
December 7, 2016

Not for the first time this year, the doom-mongers have been confounded. The Italian referendum over the weekend resulted in a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who promptly announced his resignation. Yet the sky didn’t fall in, the euro dipped and then rallied, and Italian bonds and bank stocks barely budged. Other European assets were also largely unmoved.

Why didn’t markets react how some had feared—and those who dream of the failure of the European project had hoped? One answer is that Mr. Renzi’s defeat was in the price: Markets had anticipated it. Another explanation is that the referendum, like the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump, doesn’t in itself change anything. Political consequences can and will follow from the decision, but it is too early to say what these will be and the markets will wait to assess them.

But the main reason Europe isn’t now in turmoil is that Italy’s problems are likely—for now, at least—to stay in Italy. These problems are hardly new and reflect a long-running crisis of domestic governance.

They became apparent in the years after Italy joined the euro and was no longer able to rely on frequent devaluations to maintain its competitiveness with Germany. These devaluations masked serious problems with its economic model: In a new world where goods, services, capital and people could move freely across the European Union, Italy’s high taxes, excessive bureaucracy, inefficient justice system and inflexible labor and product markets had made it uncompetitive, resulting in low investment, falling productivity and weak to nonexistent growth.

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Europe's Still Dithering Over Greece

Bloomberg
Editorial
December 7, 2016

This week, the European Union’s finance ministers granted some new debt relief to Greece. The new “short-term” measures are better than nothing -- but they’re less than a convincing solution to a problem that has dragged on far too long.

The deal, sketched out and agreed to in principle earlier this year, should help the Greek government convince voters to keep accepting much-needed domestic reform. That’s good. It isn’t enough, though, to put the country’s debts and budget plans on a sustainable footing. That’s why the International Monetary Fund, whose support will be necessary to achieve that larger goal, isn’t yet on board. After years of muddling through, the issue still isn’t resolved.

In the approach to the latest talks, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin acknowledged that “Greece has made huge efforts. This is the first Greek government in a long time that has implemented its commitments.” He said it was vital that Europe respond by recognizing its obligation to help ease the country’s debt burden, both as a reward and to encourage further improvements in the business climate.

All true. Greece can’t be accused of doing nothing to help itself. The banking system has stabilized after three bouts of recapitalization, and deposits are returning, albeit slowly. The economy is growing modestly. The country posted a primary budget surplus for the first 10 months of this year. State asset sales are proceeding slowly but surely.

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Greece and Its Creditors Get Back on a Collision Course

by Simon Nixon

Wall Street Journal
December 4, 2016

In a continent beset by multiple crises, Greece remains the cradle of European dysfunction. The country may have dropped out of the headlines in recent months, its multiple challenges seemingly buried under a tide of bailout cash. Yet it still presents the greatest risk to the survival of the eurozone. That is because Greece’s circumstances oblige the eurozone to do something it has so far appeared incapable of doing, except under conditions of extreme financial stress: take a collective political decision.

The first test of the eurozone’s decision-making capacity will come at a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday. On the face of it, the decision facing them appears straightforward: They need to complete the second review of Greece’s bailout, which will set the targets for the remaining two years of the program. That decision, in turn, will unlock the next tranche of funding. The outlines of this deal are already in place: Greece has more or less reached an agreement with its creditors—the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank—on what it must do to get the cash.

In fact, the situation is far from simple. Germany and the Netherlands have promised their parliaments that they won’t ask for more money for Greece unless the IMF also resumes lending to Greece. But the IMF says it won’t do this unless it is satisfied that Greece’s debt burden is sustainable. For the IMF, this is a question of institutional credibility. It has already put its name to two failed programs, and it is determined that it will only join a third program if it is convinced that Greece can return to the markets at the end of it, its financial sovereignty restored.

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If you build it, they will come: Greece’s new temple to high culture

by Kerin Hope

Financial Times
December 2, 2016

Even the most starry-eyed philanthropist might balk at spending €600m to build a temple of high culture in a country grappling with its worst financial crisis in memory.

Yet in 2006 when the Stavros Niarchos Foundation decided to build a new home for the Greek National Opera and the National Library, economic growth was accelerating and Greece looked set to become a beacon of prosperity in south-east Europe.

“Greece won the European football championship in 2004, it staged a successful Olympic Games, the economy was doing well,” says Andreas Dracopoulos, co-president of the New York-based foundation named for his late uncle, a Greek shipping billionaire.

“We thought Greece had turned the corner. If anyone had suggested otherwise at that time we’d have said ‘are you crazy?’” he adds.

In spite of the country’s financial collapse in 2010, followed by a succession of huge bailouts, construction of the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Cultural Centre went ahead as planned.

“I remember there was a dark night in New York when I and several colleagues had some internal questioning . . . ‘What are we doing? Greece is falling apart and we’re going to build an opera house and a library?’” he recalls. “Then I said we had to build it, this project will bring hope, we can’t let the Greeks down. And let’s do it all, not cut corners because of the crisis.”

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Tired of Syriza, Greece embraces a mainstream party

Economist
December 3, 2016

The headquarters of New Democracy, a centre-right political party, is in an unexpected part of Athens. The building, surrounded by warehouses, housed a branch of a Japanese technology firm before standing derelict for years. Few other political types are nearby. The rent, at €9,800 ($10,400) a month, is a tenth of what the party’s old office used to cost. Yet the relocation, which happened in August, is also symbolic. As the opposition party has moved to a cheaper part of town, so too does it hope that it can present itself to the public as a new, improved alternative to the Greek government. With Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister (pictured, on the left), growing less popular, New Democracy may well have a chance.

It has been a miserable year for Mr Tsipras and his left-wing Syriza government. A deal struck in March by the European Union and Turkey stemmed last year’s surge of migrants through Greece to northern Europe, but left 60,000 of them stuck in Greece in conditions that are often grim. Yet this is the least of the government’s problems. In May, after much squabbling, it pushed through €1.8bn of tax increases needed to qualify for the next chunk of cash in its current bail-out package from the EU, the third since the euro crisis began in 2010. In November Mr Tsipras reshuffled his cabinet, replacing hardline leftists with younger, pragmatic folk, seemingly in order to placate Greece’s creditors, who will meet on December 5th to tweak the latest bail-out programme.

Many of the government’s reforms have been widely hated. Business owners grumble at Scandinavian-level VAT rates of 24% and a series of new taxes. From next year self-employed professionals, such as lawyers and doctors, earning over €40,000 a year are being asked to pay tax in advance for the coming year, while their average pension contributions have tripled, says Constantine Michalos, the head of the Athens Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Many will be unable to bear the burden, and some have already moved their businesses to Cyprus or Bulgaria, he adds. “Uncertainty about taxes is the worst thing,” says Tina, who owns a betting shop in central Athens. “You don’t know what they’ll hit you with next.”

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Greece Will Not Sell Stake of Natural-Gas Operator to Azeri Firm Socar

by Nektaria Stamouli

Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2016

Greece said Wednesday it had failed to reach an agreement with Azerbaijan’s state energy company, Socar, to sell a 66% stake in Greek natural-gas operator Desfa, creating another obstacle in the country’s efforts to reach the privatization targets dictated by its bailout agreement.

The Azeri company proposed reducing the price of its investment, whose initial amount was €400 million. The proposal “was legally unfeasible and would cancel the tender,” a statement from Greece’s Energy Ministry said.

“The Greek government will decide on how it will re-launch the tender next week after consultation with its international creditors,” an energy ministry official said.

Greece must raise some €6 billion through the sale of state-controlled assets by 2018, according to the terms of its third bailout agreement with creditors, reached in 2015. The Azeri company first agreed in 2013 to buy a 66% stake in Desfa, per the privatization plans laid out in the second bailout, which was agreed to in 2012.

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Short-Term Debt Plan for Greece: All You Need to Know

by Viktoria Dendrinou

Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2016

A set of proposed short-term measures to ease Greece’s debt burden could reduce the country’s debt load by around a fifth in 2060, according to a paper drawn up by the the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone’s bailout fund, and seen by The Wall Street Journal.

We wrote about the proposals here, but thought we should offer some more detail on what they would entail.

These are the proposed “short-term measures,” part of a framework agreed by Greece’s creditors in May which aims to make Greek debt more sustainable. The more controversial medium- and long-term measures are set to be discussed at the end of the bailout in mid-2018.

A spokesman for the ESM said the paper was “a working document that has not yet been endorsed by the euro area finance ministers.” He said ESM Managing Director Klaus Regling would present the proposals to eurozone finance ministers at their next meeting on Dec. 5.

The ESM paper outlines three such short-term measures.

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Eurozone Bailout Fund Proposes Short-Term Debt Relief for Greece

by Viktoria Dendrinou

Wall Street Journal
November 30, 2016

Confidential proposals drawn up by the eurozone’s bailout fund could reduce Greece’s debt load by about a fifth in 2060.

A six-page document, dated Nov. 25 and seen by The Wall Street Journal, was produced by the European Stability Mechanism, the Luxembourg-based eurozone bailout fund. It outlines measures that could be taken in the near future to reduce Greece’s large debt load.

The paper proposes to ease Greece’s debt load by extending some maturities and locking in the interest on some of Greece’s loans to shield it from future interest-rate increases.

The cumulative impact of these measures in 2060 would cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product by 21.8 percentage points.

An official eurozone analysis in May projected debt-to-GDP of 104.9% in 2060, under a baseline scenario in which Greece fully implements its bailout program.

“This is an ESM working document that has not yet been endorsed by the euro area finance ministers. The document comes in response to the mandate the ESM was given by [euro area finance ministers] on May 25 to work for the short-term on a first set of measures to improve the debt sustainability for Greece,” an ESM spokesman said.

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Clock ticks for EU to reach IMF deal on Greece

by Jim Brunsden & Kerin Hope

Financial Times
November 23, 2016

The eurozone is running out of time to secure an agreement this year on International Monetary Fund participation in Greece’s €86bn bailout amid splits over the country’s economic reforms, budget targets and debt relief.

The fund still wants reluctant eurozone capitals to provide more detail about how far they will go to ease Greece’s mountainous debt burden.

Getting the IMF to take part in the Greek rescue has been a key objective for eurozone governments, notably Germany and the Netherlands, since the bailout was agreed last year. Berlin sees the fund’s participation as critical to convince sceptical German lawmakers of the rigour and robustness of the programme — but is also one of the governments most reluctant to grant Greece major debt relief.

People familiar with the talks also say a decision on IMF participation in the bailout is on hold until the latest progress review of the Greek programme, which began last month, is completed.

Officials are racing to make headway ahead of December 5, the last scheduled meeting this year of eurozone finance ministers. The IMF has indicated it will seek to decide by the end of 2016 on its participation.

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Greek Finance Minister Urges Quick Deal on Debt Relief

by Nektaria Stamouli & Marcus Walker

Wall Street Journal
November 17, 2016

Greece’s finance minister warned Germany and other creditors to agree on a debt restructuring in coming weeks, or miss the best chance to bring the struggling country’s seven-year crisis to an end.

Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos’s comments, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, came a day after U.S. President Barack Obama visited Athens, where he backed calls for Greek debt relief. Mr. Obama continued his European trip in Berlin on Thursday.

German leaders including finance chief Wolfgang Schäuble have said Greece’s debt can be addressed at a later date. Mr. Tsakalotos, however, warned that procrastination could undermine the country’s hopes of recovery in 2017, and that the coming weeks offer an important opportunity for the eurozone to show it can fix, rather than avoid, its problems.

“If we kick the can down the road and say ‘we will decide in two years’” about how to make Greece’s debt sustainable, then investors will also postpone decisions about investing in Greece, said Mr. Tsakalotos, a leading figure in Greece’s ruling left-wing Syriza party.

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The time is up! A realistic proposal to end Greece’s debt overhang

by Chris Marsh, Dominik Nagly, George Pagoulatos & Elias Papaioannou

Vox
November 17, 2016

It is now seven years since the Greek crisis began. As well as reflecting the chronic deficiencies of its own institutions, the failings in Greece also reflect substantial shortcomings in international institutions. This column argues that it is time for all sides to move on, and proposes a simple debt operation for Greece that can deliver debt sustainability with minimal adjustments to the ESM operating procedures.

It is now seven years since the Greek crisis began. Since 2008, real output has been reduced by one-quarter; unemployment has been above 23% for over five years, and youth unemployment around 50%. Meanwhile, Greek public debt-to-GDP remains above 175% – despite a huge debt write-down. The banking system has long since stopped intermediating savings and investment; the welfare state is in dire straits. Non-performing loans clog the banking system. An exodus of the most talented and vibrant young Greeks has begun, eroding the tax base. Trust in democratic institutions has plummeted. For many Greeks, hope has long since given way to hopelessness.

The Greek crisis reflects chronic deficiencies of its institutions, structural shortcomings, indecisiveness, and unwillingness of its political system to address long-lasting problems, among perhaps deeper societal issues. Yet, the failings in Greece also reflect substantial shortcomings in international institutions. The IMF failed to fulfil the promise of Bretton Woods to provide temporary financial support to facilitate external adjustment “without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity.” EU institutions – those intended to foster peace through cooperation and shared prosperity – have turned upon each other.

It’s time for all sides to move on.

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Tsipras Expects Trump to Govern Differently Than He Campaigned. Tsipras Would Know.

by Emily Tamkin

Foreign Policy
November 15, 2016

At a joint Tuesday press conference in Athens, U.S. President Barack Obama and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras spoke about — what else? — the implications of Donald Trump’s election.

Obama noted America is not alone in the popularity of its populists. In Europe and America alike, “people are less certain of their national identities or their place in the world,” he said. “It starts looking different and disorienting. And there is no doubt that has produced populist movements, both from the left and the right.”

And Tsipras noted, as Obama did at his press conference Monday, that though Trump had an “aggressive manner” during the campaign, the U.S. president-elect is likely to act differently once in office.

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Obama Arrives in Greece to Reassure Europe on Continuity of U.S. Alliance

by Carol E. Lee & Nektaria Stamouli

Wall Street Journal
November 15, 2016

President Barack Obama arrived in Greece Tuesday for the start of a weeklong trip overseas that will be dominated by efforts to assure nervous world leaders of continuity in U.S. alliances and key policies in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory.

With just two months left in office, Mr. Obama isn’t expected to make major policy strides during stops in Greece, Germany and Peru. He chose to visit Europe during the last foreign trip of his presidency to underscore his concerns about the economic and security future of the continent, White House officials said.

While in Greece, his first visit to the country as president, Mr. Obama will meet with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. He will also attend a state dinner Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday Mr. Obama will tour the Acropolis before delivering a speech that will “focus on the important work that’s been done to try to address the economic challenges in Greece and Europe and around the world,” said Ben Rhodes, one of the president’s deputy national security advisers.

Greece’s government hopes Mr. Obama’s visit will raise pressure on its international creditors, especially Germany, Europe’s dominant lender, to offer substantial debt relief. Mr. Obama is due to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as other major European leaders, in Berlin later this week.

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