Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Eurozone crisis: What would a break-up look like?

by Stephanie Flanders

BBC News

July 19, 2011

Nearly everything that eurozone leaders have done in response to the euro crisis has been done in the name of preventing contagion.

But guess what. It's already here. Because (nearly) everything those leaders have done, after large amounts of dithering, has ended up making the situation worse.

In the past 24 hours we have seen: Spanish and Italian bond yields head over 6%; the value of shares in three of Britain's leading banks fall by 6-7% yesterday, as a result of European stress tests which they passed; and the gold price hit an all-time record of $1600 per ounce. (British bank shares have since gone back up again).

Phew. It makes you wonder where we'd be now, if Europe's leaders had NOT been so focussed on limiting contagion.

The events of the past week have taken the eurozone crisis into (yet) another new phase - and ratcheted up the pressure on eurozone leaders as they prepare for their special summit on Thursday in Brussels.

There is now much talk about an "end game" for the euro, with serious commentators now suggesting that the break up of the single currency is a realistic possibility.

But how, exactly, would the euro break up? Until now, that is where the conversation stopped - because even if we could see the case for countries leaving the euro, it was tricky to see how they would get from here to there.

Not any more. Now we can see very clearly how it would happen, thanks to a highly illuminating disagreement between the German government and the European Central Bank (ECB).

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