How do economists assess the european economic crisis? A survey

by Andres Frick, Andrea Lassmann, Heiner Mikosch, Stefan Neuwirth and Theo Suellow

Vox
June 3, 2012

How do European economists assess the economic crisis in Europe? This column presents results of a survey of members of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes on various issues related to the European economic crisis, such as the likelihood of Greece leaving the Eurozone, the likelihood of Europe falling back into recession, and the role of the European Central Bank.

Europe is tumbling as one crisis leads to another. Economists, policymakers, and the wider public are debating a series of questions related to the crisis.

• Should the ECB play a more active role in solving the crisis?
• How fast should fiscal consolidation be (Corsetti 2012)?
• Will the Eurozone survive in its present form?
• How can the macroeconomic imbalances prevailing in the Eurozone be reduced?
• Finally, when will Europe recover from the recession?

We asked these and other questions to the members of the Association of European Conjuncture Institutes (AIECE). The AIECE comprises 36 independent economic research institutes from 21 European countries. Here are some of the results as of 1 April.

Figure 1. Probability of Greece leaving the Eurozone, kernel density

Note: Epanechikov kernel, bandwidth = 7.2580

Source: AIECE institutes

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