Why Germany's Shakeup Won't Help Greece

by Leonid Bershidsky

Bloomberg
September 28, 2017

Those cheering the looming departure of Wolfgang Schaeuble from the German Ministry of Finance should hold the champagne. His successor may not be as ornery, but southern Europeans -- and above all Greeks -- shouldn't expect any better treatment.

Schaeuble has held a wide range of positions since he was first elected to the German parliament in 1972; he's been interior minister, chief of staff to the chancellor and the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, the party now headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel; he nearly became president at one point and chancellor at another. Only one of his post-World War II predecessors at the Ministry of Finance has served longer than his eight years, and not by much. But Schaeuble has always served his party in whatever position it could offer, and he'll still be a formidable figure as speaker of the parliament, formally the second most senior office-holder in Germany after the president, just ahead of the chancellor.

Schaeuble's protestant philosophy of political service is important for the understanding of his tenure as finance minister. Of course, it took personal conviction to steer his unwavering course of austerity, balanced budgets and respect for rules. Schaeuble was trained at the University of Freiburg, where ordoliberalism was developed in the 1930s through 1950s. This theory married a liberal, pro-market approach with a strong state, whose role is to maintain a high level of social security. Ordoliberalism has faded somewhat since the 1970s, but it still influences much of German economic thinking, and Schaeuble was close to its origins in his formative years. As finance minister late in his life, he tended to lean toward the "ordo" part. He once confessed to his brother: "The older I get and the more I see as finance minister, the more skeptical I get about capitalism."

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Statement on Greek Banking System

International Monetary Fund
September 28, 2017

Mr. Poul Thomsen, Director of the European Department, made the following statement at the FT Investment Management Summit in London today:

"On the subject of the Greek banking system, let me emphasize that we see no financial stability concerns at all in Greece. The issue is that we need to be sure that there is a strategy to deal with Greece's exceptionally high level of nonperforming loans over the medium term. In this regard, we had suggested to update the 2015 asset quality review (AQR) by next spring. The European Central Bank (ECB) has instead proposed bringing forward the already scheduled stress tests and undertaking targeted asset reviews, suggesting that this will allow us to gather the information necessary to assess whether the current strategy for ensuring the soundness of the banking system is adequate, without having to go through a full asset quality review. We think that this is a constructive proposal that achieves the same broad objectives, and we are now discussing the exact modalities with our colleagues at the ECB."

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Draghi: ECB may frontload 2018 bank stress tests with view to Greece

Reuters
September 25, 2017

The European Central Bank may ‘frontload’ its bank stress test next year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday, when asked if supervisors plan any early checks on the health of Greek lenders.

The International Monetary Fund has been pushing for a fresh asset quality review at Greek banks, possibly as part of an bailout review that is slated to start soon.

The ECB has rejected the call, saying that the next check is the regular 2018 stress test, but Draghi’s words suggest that ECB may be somewhat flexible with its timeline.

“The SSM (Single Supervisory Mechanism) will take its decision with full independence,” Draghi told members of the European Parliament.

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EU ends Greece's deficit procedure in positive signal to markets

Reuters
September 25, 2017

European Union states decided on Monday to close disciplinary procedures against Greece over its excessive deficit after improvements in Greece’s fiscal position, confirming the country’s recovery is on the right track.

The move, although largely symbolic, sends a new signal that Greece’s public finances are again under control, facilitating the country’s plans to tap markets after a successful issue of bonds in July which ended a three-year exile.

EU fiscal rules oblige member states to keep their budget deficits below 3 percent of their economic output or face sanctions that could entail hefty fines, although so far no country has received a financial penalty.

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When Is It Dangerous to Declare a Crisis Over?

by Jeremy Grant

Strategy & Business
September 18, 2017

When is it a good time to declare that a crisis is over? This is not an academic question. For people leading large organizations and governments, crises are part of the new normal. A recent PwC survey of chief executives found that 65 percent of CEOs had experienced at least one crisis in the past three years. About one-third predicted they would face more than one crisis in the next three years compared with just 16 percent who felt they’d face fewer.

There has been no shortage of corporate crises in the headlines recently, from the massive IT outage that hit British Airways in May, to the hack of Equifax data that was made public in early September. And for the past decade, the authorities that oversee the European economy have been grappling with a financial and economic crisis that began in 2007.

There is, of course, a natural tendency to want to see a crisis as being behind us when not all the facts support that view. Among the many cognitive biases humans grapple with is one that leads us to have, as Madan Pillutla, a professor in organizational behavior at London Business School puts it, a “more positive forecast for things than is statistically likely or possible.”

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The eurozone may be back on its feet. But is Greece?

by Helena Smith

Observer
September 16, 2017

Is the eurozone on the mend? Jean-Claude Juncker certainly thinks so. The EU president was upbeat in Brussels last week as he gave his annual state-of-the-union address, proclaiming that “the wind is back in Europe’s sails”.

Juncker’s optimism appeared to match the view from Greece, the currency bloc’s problem child. In Athens only the previous week, the visiting French president, Emmanuel Macron, had been even more enthusiastic, declaring against the backdrop of the Acropolis that Greece’s prolonged crisis was over, and that therefore Europe’s was too.

Macron’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, went further, calling the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, “a real leader [who] works for the common good … a prime minister who works with great courage”.

But if progress on Greece’s privatisation programme is anything to go by, the eurozone’s most troubled economy is still in the foothills of recovery. Despite signs of resurgence – at 0.7%, Greece recorded two consecutive quarters of growth this year for the first time since 2006, and made a successful test return to the markets – foreign sell-offs have been plagued by red tape and political resistance.

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A New Challenge Looms for Greece’s Far Left

by Yannis Palaiologos

Wall Street Journal
September 13, 2017

Among the casualties of Greece’s extended economic crisis has been the country’s establishment left. The near-decimation of the center-left Pasok party has meant that in recent years the political space between the governing Syriza party on the far left and the parties of the center-right has had little effective representation. But now, after many false starts, an effort is under way to re-energize the center-left with a new political party, and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is concerned.

Pasok governed Greece for 21 of the 30 years between 1981 and 2011, never dropping below 38% in parliamentary elections. Under the weight of its own mishandling of the country’s fiscal collapse, however, the party’s support nosedived to 12% from 44% in two-and-half years. By the January 2015 election, its support plummeted below 5%. Meanwhile, Syriza won 35% of the vote in 2015, up from less than 5% in the October 2009 election.

Several initiatives since then to regroup and unify the ranks between Syriza and the center-right New Democracy party achieved little. The legacy of fragmentation and conflicting personal strategies that long bedevilled the political center seemed impossible to overcome.

Meanwhile, Mr. Tsipras’s abandonment of his radical agenda and his embrace, however half-hearted, of the reform-and-austerity policies of his predecessors, made him a plausible candidate to take up the leadership of Greek social democracy.

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Forget the Parthenon: how austerity is laying waste to Athens' modern heritage

by Helena Smith

Guardian
September 12, 2017

Not that long ago I received a questionnaire through my door. How had the 1930s Bauhaus building in which I live survived the rigours of time? Who had designed it? Who was its first owner? And, the form went on, what were my memories of it?

Circulated far and wide across Athens, the questionnaire and its findings are part of a vast inventory of 19th- and early 20th-century buildings that now stand at the heart of a burgeoning cultural heritage crisis in Greece. At least 10,600 buildings are on the database and it is growing by the day.

Against a backdrop of economic recession – the price of three gargantuan bailouts to keep the debt-stricken country afloat – home maintenance has become a luxury few can afford. With bank loans frozen and cuts and tax increases straining budgets, many of the buildings have been allowed to fall into disrepair, or have been pulled down altogether.

“In the present climate, people just don’t have the money to restore them,” says Irini Gratsia, co-founder of Monumenta, the association of archaeologists and architects that is collating the database. “There is a great danger that many will be demolished not because their owners want new builds, but because they want to avoid property taxes announced since the crisis began.”

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Greece: Where Literally Sitting on Goldmine Is Not Enough to Make Money

by Sotiris Nikas, Paul Tugwell & Danielle Bochove

Bloomberg
September 11, 2017

Eldorado Gold Corp. has put Greece on the spot.

The Canadian mining company’s decision on Monday to suspend all its operations in Greece, citing delays in acquiring routine permits, puts the Syriza government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in a difficult position. Eldorado Gold is the largest foreign investor in Greece and its decision comes as the country, which is working on creating a sustainable path to exit its bailout program, tries to lure foreign investments.

“Irrespective of what will happen next, the damage for Greece as an investment destination is done and it is very significant,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of Teneo Intelligence in London.

The Greek economy has shrunk by more than 25 percent since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis began in 2008. Since 2010, the country has been under bailout programs with stringent belt-tightening requirements. It has been working on attracting investments like Eldorado’s to end the bailouts and tackle high unemployment.

Eldorado’s decision “is a major blow for the Greek economy,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Eurasia said. “It will make it harder for Syriza to successfully exit the bailout next year.”

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Eldorado Gold threatens to freeze Greek operations

by Kerin Hope

Financial Times
September 11, 2017

Eldorado Gold, the biggest foreign investor in Greece, threatened to suspend its operations in the country in the first test for Alexis Tsipras and his leftwing Syriza government over their new policy of welcoming private investment.

Less than 48 hours after the premier told a business conference that a drive for “Grinvestment” had replaced the fear of a “Grexit” [from the euro], the Vancouver-based miner said it planned to put a $3bn mining investment in north Greece on hold because of delays in securing permits from the development ministry.

George Burns, chief executive, on Monday said Eldorado would shut all its operations in Greece on September 22 if key permits for two gold extraction projects were not issued in the next few days.

“This decision is not one we’ve taken lightly,” Mr Burns said in Athens. ‘We’ve held several meetings with development minister [George] Stathakis and were encouraged [to believe] the permits would be issued. But we’re still waiting.

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No escape from debtors’ prison for Greece

by Hugo Dixon

Reuters
September 11, 2017

Alexis Tsipras is desperate to avoid “suffocating supervision” of Greece’s actions when the country’s third bailout programme ends next August. At the weekend, he promised as much. But the best the Greek prime minister can hope for is that Athens will move from its current high-security prison to an open one – and that will happen only if he behaves.

Tsipras wants a clean exit from the 86 billion euro bailout so he has a good story to tell Greek voters in advance of an election that has to be held no later than September 2019. The socialist leader is currently trailing the conservative opposition in the opinion polls because of a string of broken promises and errors that have damaged the economy.

However, if Greece could escape its debtors’ prison – which involves detailed monitoring of the government’s actions by the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund and is seen as an affront to national pride – Tsipras might conceivably win a future election. Failing that, he might at least avoid an electoral wipeout and live to fight another day.

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Emmanuel Macron to stress EU financial solidarity in Athens

by Anne-Sylvaine Chassany & Kerin Hope

Financial Times
September 7, 2017

Emmanuel Macron will make the case for an overhaul of the eurozone during a two-day state visit to Greece designed to mark the member of the single-currency union’s relative return to normality.

The French president and his wife are flying to Athens with about 40 French executives on Thursday to emphasise the need for more financial solidarity with weaker members of the eurozone, in the form of investment and a common budget to help prevent new existential crises in the bloc, Elysée aides said.

The leader is pushing for the EU to adopt tighter labour rules, more protective trade tools and more stimulus, in exchange for more budget discipline at home and deregulation in the French jobs market — a bargain that Germany is showing signs it might consider.

Mr Macron has said he would like each country’s contribution to the future eurozone budget to amount to “several” gross domestic product percentage points.

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Moscovici: Greek bailout was a ‘scandal’ for democratic procedures

by Sarantis Michalopoulos

EURACTIV.com
September 4, 2017

The Eurogroup’s handling of Greece’s bailout programme was a scandal in terms of democratic processes, Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici insisted in an interview with Corriere della Sera.

After eight years of crisis and tough austerity-driven policies, the French Commissioner admitted that the Eurogroup’s decisions “behind closed doors” on the Greek bailout was a scandal in terms of democratic processes.

In June, the much-awaited second assessment of Greece’s third bailout was successfully concluded. On Tuesday (5 September), Moscovici will meet Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos in order to start the negotiations on the third evaluation.

“It is a scandal in terms of democratic processes, not because the decisions were scandalous, but because by deciding in this way the fate of a nation, imposing detailed decisions on pensions, the labor market,” Moscovici told Corriere della Sera.

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Greek economy expands in second quarter, net exports help

by George Georgiopoulos

Reuters
September 1, 2017

Greece’s economy expanded for a second straight quarter between April and June, its statistics service said on Friday, driven by gains in exports and higher government spending.

The seasonally adjusted data showed gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent in the second quarter from the first, at the same pace as in the previous three months, for which growth was upwardly revised.

Annual growth accelerated to 0.8 percent from 0.4 percent growth.

The economy’s gradual recovery after a deep recession that shrank it by a quarter and drove unemployment to record highs is boosting hopes that Greece will be able to emerge successfully from years of bailouts.

“The reading was in line with our forecasts. Growth was based on an increase in net exports and a continuing strengthening of consumption,” said National Bank economist Nikos Magginas.

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