Thursday, December 1, 2011

A happy ending for the euro?

by Stephanie Flanders

BBC News

December 1, 2011

The ECB president's comments before the European Parliament this morning have added to a mood of cautious - very cautious - optimism about the eurozone crisis, just as the governor of the Bank of England has highlighted the great risks for UK banks.

How so? Well, out of the confusion of finance ministers' meetings and diplomatic phone-calls, investors are starting to see the outlines of a compromise deal to "save" the euro.

Mario Draghi's remarks have added to the picture.

But goodness knows, we have been here before: there's still plenty of details to fill in, and plenty of time for disappointments. Also, even the most optimistic versions of the deal say nothing about the re-balancing of the European economy, which is not happening and will be crucial for any long-term success.

The rosy scenario is a story of three acts, and as ever, the fiscal comes first. Chancellor Merkel will not budge on anything until she gets agreement on a new fiscal pact for the eurozone.

As Mario Draghi repeated today, the ECB needs this too: governments have do their part to make this a viable union, both right now and into the future.

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