Seeking Alpha
May 31, 2011
The direction of the debate on Greece has pitted the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and all euro zone members in a vicious game of bailout responsibility hot-potato in the face of fears of debt contagion were Greece to default.
Greece currently has €372B of debt outstanding and EU forecasts put Greek 2011 GDP at 96.5% of 2010 GDP (€222B). At this rate, in 2011 Greece will have debt totaling 167.5% of GDP with a budget deficit of 9.5% of GDP.
As I see it, there are essentially two long-term solutions for Greece:
1. Public international assumption of a large chunk of Greek debt at low a interest rate and/or long term
It has begun to happen now through the bailouts, but this would essentially consist of the cooperation or piecemeal individual action of the IMF, ECB, and other euro zone parties to refinance a significant portion of outstanding Greek debt at low interest rates and/or a long terms to remove rating agency concern over remaining privately held Greek debt and allow Greece access to credit markets. As a condition to this maneuver, further austerity measures, asset sales and trade-barrier removal plans could be pushed through the Greek government.
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