Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Greek Bail-out II - the backlash

by Gavin Hewitt

BBC News

June 8, 2011

The sequel is due out at the end of June. Acropolis Now returns, with the stakes even higher. It sets a powerful European elite against the old Greek enemy - chaos.

So the ground is being prepared for a second significant Greek bail-out.

It was not by chance that Chancellor Angela Merkel devoted so much time to discussing the Greek crisis with President Obama in Washington. She wanted the Americans on-side and, in particular, she wanted President Obama's authority standing behind a second Greek bail-out. She needs that to help with sceptical German voters back home.

President Obama said "we think it would be disastrous for us to see an uncontrolled spiral and default in Europe, because that would trigger a whole range of other events."

At one point he raised the stakes even higher. Greece could not be allowed to "put global economic recovery at risk". So the message to those in Europe who recoil at lending Greece more money is - you're endangering the global economy. It is a heavy hand being played.

Many economists, of course, disagree. They say the exposure of German and French banks to Greek debt is manageable and they deny that a default would put at risk the entire European banking system.

Certainly there would be disruption. The Greek banks would be in trouble. The Republic of Ireland and Portugal may be tempted down the same route. And in the end it is the fear of the unknown that is holding sway.

The president went on to say "I'm confident that Germany's leadership... will help us arrive at a path for Greece to return to growth, for this debt to become more manageable."

Almost no-one believes Greece's debt can be managed, but I will return to that later.

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