Monday, June 20, 2011

In 2011, Whither Skeptics of Euro?

Wall Street Journal
June 20, 2011

For the second time in a year, European leaders are scrambling to prop up Greece. But the euro is faring far better this time.

Last spring, as Greece first teetered on the brink, there were rising expectations that the common currency would by now have plunged against the U.S. dollar, with some forecasters looking for declines approaching 20%. Talk that the crisis would lead to a breakup of the euro zone added to the gloom.

From May to June 2010, analysts on average cut their midyear 2011 euro forecasts to $1.1950 from $1.2920, according to Consensus Economics.

Investors, especially hedge funds, flocked to bearish bets on the euro. But, aside from those with very short time horizons, wagering that the European debt crisis would cripple the euro has been a losing bet.

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