by Joseph Cotterill
Financial Times
June 10, 2011
Presenting a... revisionist view of why the European Central Bank president hates any Greek debt restructuring, in whatever form.
One in which the stakes get a lot higher too.
Here’s a chart where, basically, Europe tips inexorably to fiscal union when the lines cross — and President Trichet knows it:
The chart comes via David Mackie, economist at JPMorgan, who’s pointed out before that the eurozone is by this point going to find a one-off fiscal transfer to Greece — in less technical terms, taxpayer money that will never be got back– effectively unavoidable. In other words, Greece’s obligations to official creditors will outweigh its private debt burden very soon, especially if there is a second round of loans. The more so, loans with no private restructuring.
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