Friday, June 17, 2011

What happens after the Greek parliament's vote on austerity?

by Phillip Inman

Guardian

June 17, 2011

The euro trashed

On Monday the Greek parliament votes against George Papandreou's new cabinet and its plans for further EU-inspired austerity. The decision triggers a refusal by the EU and the IMF to forward new funds to pay interest on Greek debts.

Credit ratings agencies say that Greek banks are in effect bust because they are the biggest lenders to the Athens government. French and German banks, which are the biggest foreign lenders, lose billions. Markets crash. US and Middle Eastern investors begin a fire sale of assets in Spain and Italy as well as in Portugal and Ireland.

Within hours Silvio Berlusconi is on the phone to Brussels begging for funds. Italian public sector workers join counterparts in Greece and Spain on the streets to protest at steep wage cuts. Riots topple democratic governments and usher in military dictatorships promising order. The EU falls apart as each country decides to leave the euro and issue their own currency.

Likelihood: 2/5

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