Tuesday, December 6, 2011

S&P’s logical but tactless eurozone warning

by Robert Peston

BBC News

December 5, 2011

The reasons given by Standard and Poor's for warning that it may downgrade the credit ratings of all but one of the eurozone's member governments - the exception being Greece, which already has an exceptionally low junk rating - are in a sense uncontroversial.

As the leading ratings agency points out, eurozone banks have been struggling to borrow, a number of eurozone economies are buckling under the burden of big government and household debts, there is a significant risk of recession, there is a bitter dispute between eurozone leaders about how best to help governments finding it hard to obtain loans, and investors are in general increasingly wary of lending to the eurozone's public sector.

And, as it happens, the best and most sophisticated arguments for downgrading the ratings of all eurozone governments, under the current constitutional arrangements for the currency union, were made in a recent speech by the chairman of the Financial Services Authority, Adair Turner (see my post, The eurozone's borrowing costs may stay lethally high).

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