Should Greece Abandon the Euro?

by Richard A. Posner

The Becker-Posner Blog
May 20, 2012

I agree with Becker that it would make sense for Greece (from the standpoint of Greek self-interest) to replace the euro with its own currency, but my reason is slightly different; it is that it is the politically more practicable solution to Greece’s economic woes. I also suggest a caveat based on the costs to Greece of transitioning from the euro to a homegrown currency: Greece would be better off in the long run with its own currency, but it may not be able to avoid or tolerate the short-run costs.

From a narrowly economic standpoint, disregarding politics, abandoning the euro would have consequences for the Greek economy comparable to the consequences of adopting a further set of “austerity” measures, as urged by the Germans. Such measures might include laying off a large number of public sector workers, cutting public pensions, curtailing the powers of unions, cracking down on tax evasion and corruption more generally, and eliminating restrictions on competition, such as licensing requirements for new businesses and for professionals such as lawyers and accountants. The problem with enacting such austerity measures is that they are politically infeasible in the circumstances in which Greece finds itself. This is partly due to Greeks’ hatred of Germans (rooted in the brutal German conquest and occupation of Greece during World War II, and also in the disdain for Greeks that Germans feel and make little effort to disguise), but more to distrust by the Greek people of the Greek government and to the understandable resistance of the beneficiaries of Greece’s economically unsound policies (public sector workers, public pensioners, professionals protected from competition, and so forth) to give up any of their benefits.

The beauty of replacing the euro with a Greek currency is that this single, politically feasible—if not downright popular—legislative measure is likely to bring about indirectly economic results similar to those that explicit austerity measures would be likely to bring about. Euros held by Greeks, including Greek banks, would be exchanged for the new currency (the drachma—the name of the Greek currency before Greece substituted the euro), which because of Greece’s parlous economic state, and the benefits of devaluation, would be worth substantially less than the euro. One result would be that Greek exports would be substantially cheaper, and this would increase demand for them, which would stimulate an increase in their supply, leading to increased employment in the export sector of the Greek economy. The prices of imports would be higher, and this in turn would encourage substitution of domestically produced goods for imported goods; domestic production would thus increase to serve domestic as well as foreign markets, further increasing employment.

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