Here’s What Could Happen Next in Greece

by Gabriella Stern and Jenny Paris


Wall Street Journal
November 4, 2011

Here, in a nutshell, are the political scenarios as Greece’s parliament debates and votes in coming hours:

Best Case: A quickly formed coalition government between the socialist Pasok and conservative New Democrat parties is the ”best case” in the sense that Parliamentary ratification of the Oct. 26 Greek bailout/austerity plan would likely happen quickly in coming days before Greece runs out of money in mid-December.

Next-Best Case: Another scenario that would likely result in swift ratification is the survival of the Papandreou-led Pasok government, which having dropped the referendum idea, wants the bailout passed.

Worst case: A standoff between Papandreou and New Democrat boss Samaras, which, if protracted, could delay ratification. Any scenario requiring national elections would mean a delay into January as the country prepared to vote.

Remember: Greece won’t get the sixth aid tranche before going broke without parliamentary ratification of the Oct. 26 deal plus government commitment to terms of the deal.

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