Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Fiscal Rules and the Sovereign Default Premium

Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

International Monetary Fund

Working Paper 12/30
January 1, 2012


This paper finds optimal fiscal rule parameter values and measures the effects of imposing fiscal rules using a default model calibrated to an economy that in the absence of a fiscal rule pays a significant sovereign default premium. The paper also studies the case in which the government conducts a voluntary debt restructuring to capture the capital gains from the increase in its debt market value implied by a rule announcement. In addition, the paper shows how debt ceilings may reduce the procyclicality of fiscal policy and thus consumption volatility.

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