A year of good and not so good calls

by John Dizard

Financial Times
January 8, 2012

Journalists are fond of self-congratulation, which is good, because for the most part that is the only sort they will get. I admit to having an annoying weakness for the I-told-you-so moment, but once a year I attempt to atone for that with a selective admission of some mistakes. While this column is intended as commentary, rather than financial advice, its 2011 track record was, with some exceptions, not so bad.

I spent most of the year trying to stay just a bit ahead of euro-officialdom, and that worked out well. Frankly, though, it is not a very impressive goal. Somewhat like wanting to win the triathlon against the Special Olympics field.

For all the supposedly deep thinking done in the money world, success or failure in 2011 really all came down to whether, on the right days, you were “risk on” or “risk off”, with the choice driven by the previous day’s news. In part because global news organisations like covering events in well-serviced Europe rather than the more trying parts of the world, that meant if the continent had good headlines, risk assets increased in price, bad headlines, risk assets dropped. Ask yourself why you pay management fees for that level of analysis.

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