Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Beware Greek Debt Cut Figure

by Stephen Fidler

Wall Street Journal

October 26, 2011

As we reported this morning, representatives of the Institute for International Finance put forward a new proposal to euro-zone governments last night in an effort to break the deadlock over Greece’s debt deal ahead of today’s European summit.

We couldn’t immediately learn the details, except for one snippet: The new proposal suggests a different discount rate being used to calculate the headline figure for the private sector contribution for the debt exchange.

So what? To explain, let’s back up a bit to the July 21 agreement by euro-zone leaders on a bond exchange that would reduce the net present value* of Greece’s debt by 21%–using an annual discount rate of 9%.

Since then, circumstances have changed. Germany has been seeking a 60% reduction. The International Monetary Fund has been arguing that even more is required to put Greece’s debt on a sustainable footing, a position which implies a forced debt restructuring.

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