Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Plan B for the eurozone?

by Stephanie Flanders

BBC News

October 26, 2011

Plan A for fixing the eurozone is turning out to be painfully slow. Even if we get an agreement out of Wednesday's summit, it seems now there will be plenty of details left for officials to fill in later.

If previous deals are any guide, there will also plenty of holes - which investors and commentators will be quick to spot. But for many, the most gaping absence will be the one I discussed in my last post: economic growth.

On today's negotiations, the rule of thumb for officials is that the bigger the 'haircut' for private holders of Greek government debt, the more ambitious the plans for the bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, will need to be, and the more likely it is that France will persuade Germany to go along with the whole thing.

That deal has yet to be done. It's not clear it will be done by the end of play on Wednesday. But the worry for investors - and the likes of the IMF - is that the countries in trouble are simply not going to grow quickly enough to stay on top of their debts. Even if, in the case of Greece, that debt is sharply reduced.

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