A reprieve, nothing more

Economist
February 13, 2012

Rioting in Athens, a crucial late-night vote on austerity in the Greek parliament, and just enough accomplished to unlock the latest round of bail-out money from Greece’s official creditors when euro-zone finance ministers meet again in Brussels on Wednesday. The euro-crisis script has not changed much over the past year.

If things run to form, the risk of imminent, disorderly default will be deferred this week. Most private-sector creditors will agree to swallow a big loss on their holdings of Greek bonds; and Greece will legislate to ensure that hold-out creditors are forced to accept the same terms. Official creditors will nod through a €130 billion bail-out, enabling Greece to meet a big bond payment due in March.

Greece’s agonies are by no means over, however. Although the country’s debt burden will be cut as a result of the private-sector losses, the relentless rhythm of regular troika assessments and poisonous rows over disbursements will continue. The weekend’s events do nothing to instil confidence that Greece will suddenly start fulfilling its promises. Forty-three deputies were expelled from their parties for voting against the caretaker government of Lucas Papademos. A requirement that the leaders of the main parties have to follow through with cuts regardless of the results of coming elections will be tested to destruction when campaigning actually begins.

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