Reuters
May 16, 2012
Speculation about an endgame in Greece's protracted crisis has flooded markets with euro exit scenarios this week, but investors reckon there's still every chance that uncertainty will simply drag on for months.
Seeking clear-cut outcomes to the euro saga to date has proven fruitless for investors, who have instead been forced to live with the "muddle through" of European politics.
And more used to precedent, probabilities and precise numbers, asset managers are far from their comfort zone when interpreting the hyper-politicized standoff over Greece's future membership of the single currency.
So instead of mapping binary outcomes, investment strategists are once again looking hard at the grey areas.
The political vacuum in Greece after May 6's inconclusive elections seems to have hastened a showdown where no government in Athens can deliver more budget cuts, so no more bailout funds are forthcoming and public money drains away, leading to mass defaults and a euro exit with all its wider ramifications.
And if that's the will of the Greek people, then it may be tempting for all sides to try and manage the outcome as best they could. But nothing's that simple. Even though Greek voters rejected austerity in favor of anti-bailout parties, opinion polls show more than 75 percent want to stay in the euro.
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