Observer
May 13, 2012
Mass unemployment in Greece, inflation at 50%, a devastating recession and Greeks heading for the borders – that's the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some economists in the increasingly likely event that Greece leaves the eurozone in coming months.
Greece is small in economic terms: it contributes only 2.2% of eurozone GDP. But withdrawal from the single currency would unleash chaos in the country, and have potentially severe knock-on effects on other euro nations.
US bank Citigroup now reckons there is a 75% chance that Greece will pull out of the single currency within the next 18 months. This would set a precedent, and the eurozone could quickly unravel if other vulnerable members like Spain and Italy were to follow suit.
The fallout from a Greek exit would quickly wipe 20% off Greece's GDP, send inflation soaring to 40%-50%, and see Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio soaring over 200%, say analysts at French bank BNP Paribas.
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