Guardian
May 18, 2012
Jamaica, an English-speaking Caribbean island nation of 2.9 million people, may seem worlds away from Europe. The country's income per person of $9,000 ranks it 88th in the world, as compared to the eurozone countries, which are three or four times richer. But they face a common problem, and although none of the eurozone countries is likely to become as poor as Jamaica is today, they could easily – going forward – mimic the dismal economic performance that Jamaica has seen over the past 20 years.
Jamaica has the world's highest public debt burden: interest payments on the government's debt account for 10% of the country's national income. (For comparison, Greece – with the worst debt burden in Europe – is paying 6.8% of GDP in interest.) This leaves little room for public investment in infrastructure, or improving education or healthcare. Partly as a result of this debt trap, Jamaica's income per person has grown by just 0.7% annually over the past 20 years.
Two years ago, Jamaica reached an agreement with its creditors, brokered by the IMF, that restructured its debt. Interest payments were lowered, and some principal payments were pushed forward. But the debt burden remained unsustainable. The IMF now projects that Jamaica's debt will reach 153% of GDP in just three years.
Sound familiar? That is what happened to Greece just four months ago. The Greek government reached an agreement with the European authorities (the "Troika" of the European Central Bank or ECB, the European Commission, and the IMF) that reduced its debt. Unlike in Jamaica, the private investors holding Greek debt took a "haircut", losing about half of the principal.
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