Friday, March 2, 2012

Don't Write Off Greece's CDS Just Yet

by Richard Barley

Wall Street Journal

March 1, 2012

The devil is in the detail when it comes to defaults. Standard & Poor's has declared Greece to be in a state of "selective default," but the 10 banks and five investors on the International Swaps and Derivatives Associations' Determinations Committee unanimously agreed Thursday that credit-default swaps (CDS) on Greece's debt had not been triggered. That was not a surprise. But unless there is an extraordinarily high voluntary take-up of Greece's bond swap offer, the process will almost certainly end up triggering CDS in the next two weeks or so.

The committee was asked to judge two questions: whether a restructuring credit event had taken place, and whether holders of Greek law bonds had been subordinated by the European Central Bank in a way that would trigger CDS. The ECB has swapped its Greek bonds for new bonds that will not be subject to collective-action clauses that could be used to enforce the restructuring, thus excluding it from losses.

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