Thursday, July 21, 2011

Euro summit plays

by James Mackintosh

Financial Times

July 20, 2011

Out of nowhere this week came the plan to tax eurozone banks to help pay for the next Greek bail-out. That added another option to the long list ahead of Thursday’s emergency summit of European leaders: speed the expansion of the rescue fund, widen its scope, buy back and cancel Greek debt, issue Eurobonds. Selling Corfu is still out of bounds, but otherwise there is little clarity on the outcome of the meeting.

Investors have been getting excited, helped by a new plan for the US debt ceiling talks and strong profits. Previous European summits have not met market expectations but perhaps this time is different. If it is, big gains beckon.

Greek bonds are the obvious bet. If the private sector contribution to the bail-out is voluntary, non-volunteers can get a yield of more than 30 per cent on two-year bonds – and buy the long bond maturing in 2040 at 43 cents on the euro.

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