Monday, July 11, 2011

ECB Is Heading for Some Hefty Icebergs

by Irwin Stelzer

Wall Street Journal

July 11, 2011

The Argentine government and the euro-zone policy makers have much in common: both have pistols at the ready, and aimed at unwanted messengers.

Argentina's government says the country's inflation rate is 9.7%. Most independent economists put the figure at 20%. So the government has filed criminal charges against one consulting firm, MyS for "publishing false information about inflation data," part of a coordinated campaign against independent economists.

I am sure euro-zone policy makers chuckle at such behavior by a country famous for economic mismanagement. After all, wasn't it less than ten years ago that Argentina defaulted on its debt, something no self-respecting eurocrat would allow to happen in the zone—if they could prevent it, which they cannot. It seems that the rating agencies are threatening to declare Greece in default if private-sector players are forced to accept a haircut on their Greek debt. Which to eurocrats puts the rating agencies in the same class as the Argentine government puts independent economists–enemies of the people. Rather than allow the big three rating agencies–Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch–to get in the way of plans for the next Greek bailout, the Europeans want to set up their own agency, which will presumably better understand that "default" is not a word used in polite Brussels circles. After all, the big three are American, and who can deny that their real goal is to destroy the euro so as to preserve the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency?

In short, if you don't like the frigid temperature, buy a new thermometer rather than a scarf and gloves. Deny reality. Which seems to be the stock in trade of eurocrats. If the markets say that Greece must pay 20% to borrow money, blame it on speculators rather than Greece's failure to keep the promises made when it negotiated the initial bailout.

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