September 12, 2011
Greece’s chance of default in the next five years has soared to 98 percent as Prime Minister George Papandreou fails to reassure international investors that his country can survive the euro-region crisis.
“Everyone’s pricing in a pretty near-term default and I think it’ll be a hard event,” said Peter Tchir, founder of hedge fund TF Market Advisors in New York. “Clearly this austerity plan is not working.”
It now costs a record $5.8 million upfront and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million of Greek debt for five years using credit-default swaps, up from $5.5 million in advance Sept. 9, according to CMA.
Papandreou’s promises to adhere to deficit targets that are conditions of the European Union and International Monetary Fund’s bailout were undermined by data showing Greece’s budget gap widened 22 percent in the first eight months of the year. The nation’s two-year note yield climbed toward 70 percent, while its stock market has plummeted by a third in the past seven weeks.
The default probability for Greece is based on a standard pricing model that assumes investors would recover 40 percent of the bonds’ face value were Greece to fail to meet its obligations.
The nation’s government now expects the economy to shrink more than 5 percent this year, more than the 3.8 percent forecast by the European Commission, as austerity measures deepen a three-year recession. The euro slipped to its lowest level against the yen since 2001 amid concern about the future of the 17-bloc region.
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