Monday, September 19, 2011

Greek debt crisis: what the analysts say

Guardian
September 19, 2011

Greece's financial future hung in the balance on Monday, as the international community weighed up whether to hand over the €8bn tranche of funding. How do experts see the situation?


Louise Cooper, markets analyst at BGC Partners

It should be no surprise that the Ecofin meeting in Poland this weekend disappointed, but clearly the level of disagreement among politicians as to how to deal with the crisis is becoming more apparent. Coming together all in one place seemed to highlight the level of disunity among those who have the authority to deal with the problem. The slow machinations of the political class are just not keeping up with the economic and financial reality on the ground. Even politicians are now realising they are behind the curve. And yet what do we get? Indecision and dithering, and a lack of acknowledgement of the scale of the problem.

The Greek prime minister, George Papandreou, has cancelled a trip to the US to stay in Athens for the next "critical seven days" as the troika (EU, ECB and IMF) decides whether Greece is to receive next payment of bailout funds … It seems there is a real threat that the troika might not hand over the cash. However, given the state of the Greek economy, I am not sure that more austerity – which is what the troika is demanding – will help. What is needed is deep structural reform, which neither the Greek electorate or political class seem to have much appetite for.

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