Wall Street Journal
September 23, 2011
Judging from the price of Greek government bonds, a growing body of investors now worries that Greece will default on its debt sooner, rather than later. A research note from Citibank economists issued Friday describes what appears quickly to be becoming a consensus market view:
We now expect the Greek sovereign to engage in substantial and probably coercive debt restructuring by the end of 2012 at the latest and likely much sooner (by the spring of 2012 or even December 2011), but not in the immediate future (say, the next 2 months).
The Citibank economists believe Greece will get the €8 billion due in the next few weeks from official creditors under its first bailout. But possibly nothing after that, raising the question over whether a second bailout agreed by euro-zone leaders at their July summit will actually go ahead.
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